Standard Chartered Greater China Senior Economist Liu Jianheng expects that the United States will begin to cut interest rates in June. The bank maintains its forecast that the United States will cut interest rates four times this year. There is room for the Hong Kong dollar’s interbank interest rate to fall, and the prime rate may also fall. Due to the past U.S. When it comes to interest rate hikes, Hong Kong’s prime interest rate cannot keep up with U.S. interest rates in terms of timing and magnitude. If the U.S. cuts interest rates four times this year, the prime interest rate may be lowered 1 or 2 times, and the adjustment may only be half of the reduction in U.S. interest rates. .
He pointed out that if the U.S. interest rate decreases by 0.25%, the prime rate may be reduced by 0.125%. Even if the reduction is moderate, it will have a positive impact on the property market and the Hong Kong economy. Because the market sentiment has improved due to the expected interest rate cut cycle and the government’s withdrawal from the epidemic, we hope that the situation will continue and the property market transactions can maintain a good level. However, it is too early to say whether property prices will rise sharply, pending the supply of goods. After digestion, there will be obvious room for improvement.
Standard Chartered also predicts that the three-month Hong Kong dollar interbank offered rate will fall to 4% by the end of the year, and the one-month Hong Kong dollar offered rate will fall to 3.8%. Liu Jianheng predicts that if the U.S. cuts interest rates, interbank interest rates will fall more sharply than the prime rate, which will be helpful to companies’ financing intentions. It is also expected to attract U.S. capital inflows into Asia and emerging markets, including Hong Kong, which will help improve growth. According to market performance, as long as the benefits of U.S. interest rate cuts slowly emerge, we hope that Hong Kong’s economy will recover moderately. Moreover, it is expected that the United States will cut interest rates 3 to 4 times next year, and Hong Kong dollar interest rates may fall further, which will benefit the Hong Kong economy.
However, he said that the performance of companies also depends on other factors, including the economic conditions of the West and China, as well as geopolitics and the situation of the US presidential election.