The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government published the “2024 Half-Year Economic Report” and the revised figures of the second quarter of 2024 GDP on the 16th. Data showed that Hong Kong’s real GDP grew by 3.3% year-on-year in the second quarter. After seasonal adjustment, the real GDP rose by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter.
Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government Economic Advisor Liang Yongsheng said that Hong Kong’s economy continued to record moderate growth in the second quarter of 2024. Taking into account the actual figures in the first half of the year and the latest developments in global and local situations, the forecast for real GDP growth in 2024 remains at 2.5% to 3.5%.
According to statistics, Hong Kong’s overall merchandise exports continued to grow strongly, with a real year-on-year growth of 7.5% in the second quarter of this year. Among them, exports to the mainland continued to rise significantly. Exports to the United States resumed significant growth, and the decline in exports to the European Union narrowed. Exports to several major Asian markets also improved. Service exports grew by 1.4% year-on-year in real terms, a slowdown from the first quarter of this year.
Statistics show that personal consumption expenditure turned to a slight year-on-year decline of 1.5% in the second quarter, mainly due to changes in citizens’ consumption patterns. At the same time, overall investment expenditure further increased by 6.0% with economic growth. In terms of employment, in the second quarter, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at a low level of 3.0%, the underemployment rate was at a low level of 1.2%, and employment income continued to record a steady growth. Basic consumer price inflation remained mild in the second quarter. The basic composite consumer price index rose by 1% year-on-year, the same as the previous quarter.
Looking ahead, Liang Yongsheng believes that overall, inflation should remain mild in the short term. Local costs may face mild upward pressure as Hong Kong’s economy continues to grow. Although geopolitical tensions may bring uncertainty, external price pressures should continue to show a generally slowing trend. Taking into account the inflation situation in the first half of the year and the above factors, the forecasts for basic and overall consumer price inflation in 2024 have been revised downward from 1.7% and 2.4% in May to 1.3% and 1.9% respectively.